Over the past few decades, health care has become more decentralized. Mark Hughes, senior consultant for Enterprise Analysis Corporation in Stamford, CT, says this shift means that the home testing market—which doubled its revenues from $1.19 billion in 1994 to $2.34 in 2000—will continue to grow. In fact, it is now a $7 billion global market and expected to continue to expand as new self-diagnostic technologies become available.

“Technology will make testing formats easier to perform and more accurate,” Hughes says. “The markets for diagnosis and monitoring will expand; we could also see an increase in tests for screening chronic diseases.” Hughes notes that pharmacies in the UK, for example, are installing tests that use biochemical markers to screen for osteoporosis (these are not yet available in the U.S.).

First-generation tests, like prothrombin time (used to monitor blood thinners) will lead to improved second- and third-generation devices, in the same way that computer hard drives evolved from storage capacities of 20 megabytes in the early 1990s to more than 20 gigabytes in 2001.

“One of the biggest benefits [to home medical devices that monitor disease conditions] is connectivity,” Nichols says. “They’re not completely wireless yet, but most can store data and show individual health trends.”

In the future, your doctor may be able to plug these devices into a computer and analyze your results by “smart algorithm.” Or you may be able to use devices that sync with your own computer, prompting it to issue regular reminders to take a reading. Eventually, home tests may be able to send the results directly to your doctor in the same manner as a cell phone or text message.

A survey conducted by Enterprise Analysis Corporation predicts that in the next seven years, up to 45% of testing will be done outside the core laboratory. That is, 45% of testing will be performed at the patient’s bedside, in the emergency room, in the doctor’s office, or at home, by consumers who are performing essentially the same tests used at these other “points of care.”

The issue then becomes consumer education. “Think about how often you have a prescription for medicine that you have to take four times a day,” Nichols says, “and how many times you forget to take it.”

“But for patients who are taught well by their clinician,” he adds, “that [home test] can be a godsend.”